Aktuelle Veröffentlichung: Abschlussbericht der Strafvollzugskommission zur Reform des Bundes-Strafvollzugswesens in den USA

Justice Policy Center

Dear colleague,

I am writing in my capacity as Executive Director of the Charles Colson Task Force on Federal Corrections to share that the Task Force has released its final report, Transforming Prisons, Restoring Lives: Final Recommendations of the Charles Colson Task Force on Federal Corrections.

This report reflects over a year of fact finding, data analysis, and stakeholder engagement on the part of Task Force members and staff. The results are a suite of recommendations that are bold, comprehensive, data-driven, and grounded in the research evidence. I welcome you to share it with your networks and disseminate it via social media employing #colsontaskforce and #CJreform.

With best regards, Nancy La Vigne

Forecasting Crime in Germany in Times of Demographic Change

Michael Hanslmaier / Stefanie Kemme / Katharina Stoll / Dirk Baier

European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research
December 2015, Volume 21, Issue 4, pp 591-610

Abstract

Studies have shown the impact of a population’s age structure on the crime rate. Germany is — like many other industrialized countries — facing an ageing of its population. This trend will continue in the future: Until the year 2020 the share of younger people aged 14 to 24 years will decrease from 12.3 % to 10.7 % and the share of elderly persons aged 60 years and older will increase from 25.9 % to 30.1 %. Crime is, however, not only influenced by age, other factors also play an important role. Research has shown that the level of social disorganization is especially related to the crime rate.

The aim of the present contribution is to explain the crime trends between 1995 and 2010 using multivariate panel estimators that take into account the demographic changes and social disorganization. These models are in a second step used to forecast the crime trends until the year 2020. The data base consists of pooled time-series at the county level from four German states (Bavaria, Brandenburg, Lower Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt).

The results show that the age structure plays only a limited role in explaining the past crime trends. The most important factor is residential instability. The forecasts expect a decline of the number of registered offences till 2020. However, the decline will be faster in the eastern states than in the western states and some offences are expected to increase in the future.

More details see under:
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10610-015-9270-1?wt_mc=alerts....

Alterung der Bevölkerung durch aktuell hohe Zuwanderung nicht umkehrbar

WIESBADEN – Die aktuelle hohe Zuwanderung hat nur sehr eingeschränkte Auswirkungen auf die langfristige Bevölkerungsentwicklung. Sie schlägt sich vor allem im kurzfristigen Anstieg der Bevölkerungszahl nieder. Der Trend zur zunehmenden Alterung der Bevölkerung kann dadurch nicht umgekehrt werden.
Wie das Statistische Bundesamt (Destatis) weiter mitteilt, wird der aktuelle Altersaufbau die Bevölkerungsentwicklung in den nächsten drei Jahrzehnten voraussichtlich stärker prägen als der Saldo der Zuzüge nach und Fortzüge aus Deutschland. Durch eine hohe Nettozuwanderung können jedoch das Tempo und das Ausmaß der Alterung gemindert werden.

Quelle: PRESSEMITTEILUNG des Statistischen Bundesamtes (DESTATIS) Wiesbaden Nr. 021 vom 19.01.2016.
Die vollständige Pressemitteilung (inklusive PDF-Version) ist im Internetangebot des Statistischen Bundesamtes zu finden unter http://www.destatis.de/presseaktuell .
Verbreitung mit Quellenangabe erwünscht.
Herausgeber: DESTATIS | Statistisches Bundesamt. Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 11. 65189 Wiesbaden. Telefon: +49 (0) 611 / 75 - 34 44. www.destatis.de/kontakt

BJS National Crime Victimization Survey Methodological Papers 2015

Bureau of Justice Statistics, USA, December 28, 2015
Research and Development Papers

Assessing the Coverage and Reliability of Subnational Geographic Identifiers in the NCVS Public-Use File (NCJ 249467) and Evaluation of Direct Variance Estimation, Estimate Reliability,
and
Confidence Intervals for the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCJ 249242)

These 2 reports are now available on BJS.gov. Our new Research and Development (R&D) Papers series details statistical methods that will be applied to analyzing and reporting official findings from BJS's data collection programs.

Assessing the Coverage and Reliability of Subnational Geographic Identifiers in the NCVS Public-Use File examines the coverage and reliability of the NCVS sample in the subnational geographic areas that can be created from the public-use files by combining Census region, population size, and urbanicity.

Download the Report

Evaluation of Direct Variance Estimation, Estimate Reliability, and Confidence Intervals for the National Crime Victimization Survey examines the feasibility of using direct variance estimation for the National Crime Victimization Survey. It compares generalized variance function estimates to two direct variance estimation methods (Taylor Series Linearization and Balanced Repeated Replication).

Download the Report

Aktuelle Studie:Kritische Einstellungen in der Bevölkerung der USA zur Immigration

Immigration Attitudes and Support for the Welfare State in the American Mass Public

American Journal of Political Science

How to Cite: Garand, J. C., Xu, P. and Davis, B. C. (2015), Immigration Attitudes and Support for the Welfare State in the American Mass Public. American Journal of Political Science. doi: 10.1111/ajps.12233

Abstract

In this article, we explore the relationship between Americans’ attitudes toward immigrants and immigration and their attitudes toward welfare.

Using data from the Cumulative American National Election Study from 1992 to 2012, we find ample evidence of the influence of immigration attitudes on both individuals’ attitudes toward welfare recipients and their attitudes toward increased welfare spending.

These immigration effects persist even in the face of statistical controls for attitudes toward African Americans and attitudes toward the poor; indeed, in our models, the magnitude of the effects of immigration attitudes surpasses the magnitude of effects of attitudes toward blacks. Further, our findings of immigration effects withstand a range of robustness tests.

Our results point to the possible “immigrationalization” of Americans’ welfare attitudes and provide strong evidence that how Americans think about immigration and immigrants is a major factor in how they think about welfare.

Source:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajps.12233/abstract?campaign=wolearlyview

Bewährungshilfe und bedingte Entlassung: Neueste Zahlen aus den USA

Probation and Parole in the United States, 2014

Thomas P. Bonczar, Danielle Kaeble, Laura Maruschak, BJS Statisticians (2015)

Presents data on adult offenders under community supervision while on probation or parole in 2014. The report presents trends over time for the overall community supervision population and describes changes in the probation and parole populations. It provides statistics on the number of offenders entering and exiting probation and parole and the mean time served as well as national-level data on the distribution of offenders on probation or parole by sex, race or Hispanic origin, most serious offense type, and status of supervision. It also presents outcomes of supervision, including the rate at which offenders completed their term of supervision or were returned to incarceration. Appendix tables include jurisdiction-level information on the population counts and number of entries and exits for probation and parole; jurisdiction-level information on the types of entries and exits for parole.

Highlights:

• At yearend 2014, an estimated 4,708,100 adults were under community supervisiondown by about 45,300 offenders from yearend 2013.
• Approximately 1 in 52 adults in the United States was under community supervision at yearend 2014.

Probation findings:

• Between yearend 2013 and 2014, the adult probation population declined by about 46,500 offenders (down 1.2%), falling to an estimated 3,864,100 offenders at yearend 2014.
• Entries onto probation decreased about 1.3% during 2014, and exits declined about 1.0% to an estimated 2,130,700. 

Parole findings:

• The adult parole population increased by about 1,600 offenders (up 0.2%) between yearend 2013 and 2014, to an estimated 856,900 offenders at yearend 2014.
• Both entries to and exits from parole decreased about 1.5% in 2014.
• The reincarceration rate among parolees at risk of violating their conditions of supervision remained stable at about 9% in 2013 and 2014.

More pieces of information at: http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=5415

LG Nürnberg zu intersexueller Person: Schadensersatz wegen mangelnder Aufklärung vor OP

Legal Tribune Online, 17.12.2015

Auch, wenn in den Lehrbüchern etwas Anderes stand: Bereits 1995 hätten die Ärzte eine intersexuelle Person über ihre beiden Geschlechter aufklären müssen, bevor diese in eine OP einwilligte. Nun bekommt sie immerhin Schadensersatz.

Weitere Information unter: http://www.lto.de/recht/nachrichten/n/lg-nuernberg-4-o-7000-11-intersexu...

Das Ruanda-Tribunal schließt seine Pforten Verurteilt werden die Verantwortlichen dennoch

von Dr. Eike Fesefeldt

Legal Tribune Online, 21.12.2015

© Aleksandar Mijatovic

Am 14. Dezember schloss der Internationale Strafgerichtshof für Ruanda das letzte Verfahren zum Völkermord vor 22 Jahren ab. Dr. Eike Fesefeldt, Richter am LG Stuttgart, berichtet über das erfolgreiche Tribunal und die Gerichte, welche die letzten Flüchtigen verurteilen werden.

Weiter unter: http://www.lto.de/recht/hintergruende/h/ruanda-tribunal-internationaler-...